Covid plots for family
April 03, 2020
Background
- This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included while be the day prior.
- The page is mostly organized by geography: It starts by showing data for all of the U.S., followed by our respective states, followed by our respective counties.
- Within each geophraphy, it shows several plots:
- Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
- New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
- Rolling 3-day case growth rate: This is the average daily growth rate in total cases over the previous 3 days. For instance, if it is 100%, then that means total cases are doubling every 3 days. (This isn’t shown at the county level because the sample size is too small.)
- Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported
- New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date
- Rolling 3-day death growth rate: This is the average daily growth rate in total deaths over the previous 3 days. For instance, if it is 100%, then that means total deaths are doubling every 3 days. (This isn’t shown at the county level because the sample size is too small.)
- Besides this data for each geography, it also includes some additional plots at the end:
- It shows tables of both total cases and deaths per million residents for all states, and then a graph of trends of these numbers for the top 10 states (only using 10 in the graph so it’s not too crowded). Showing the numbers per million helps normalize for the size of the states when looking at totals.
- It then shows these same tables and plots for cases and deaths, but with new cases/deaths per million residents instead of total cases/deaths per million. This section uses a rolling 3-day average of new cases/deaths.
- Finally, it shows the same rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, but broken out by states that have enacted stay-at-home orders and when the orders were enacted.
United States
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Washington
Confirmed cases
Deaths
California
Confirmed cases
Deaths
South Carolina
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Tennessee
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Pierce County, Washington
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Orange County, California
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Richland County, South Carolina
Confirmed cases
Deaths
York County, South Carolina
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Davidson County, Tennessee
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Compare state data based on population
Total confirmed cases
Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
## state casesPerMillion
## 1: New York 4,768
## 2: New Jersey 2,881
## 3: Louisiana 1,968
## 4: Massachusetts 1,300
## 5: Michigan 1,080
## 6: Connecticut 1,072
## 7: District of Columbia 925
## 8: Washington 864
## 9: Colorado 647
## 10: Rhode Island 620
## 11: Illinois 607
## 12: Pennsylvania 548
## 13: Vermont 541
## 14: Georgia 512
## 15: Idaho 498
## 16: Nevada 473
## 17: Indiana 451
## 18: Tennessee 420
## 19: Florida 419
## 20: Delaware 403
## 21: Mississippi 395
## 22: Maryland 385
## 23: New Hampshire 352
## 24: Utah 335
## 25: South Carolina 301
## 26: Missouri 298
## 27: Wisconsin 297
## 28: Maine 279
## 29: California 278
## 30: Wyoming 264
## 31: Alabama 259
## 32: Ohio 248
## 33: Arkansas 226
## 34: Montana 225
## 35: Oklahoma 222
## 36: Arizona 219
## 37: North Dakota 208
## 38: Alaska 199
## 39: Hawaii 199
## 40: Virginia 199
## 41: Oregon 195
## 42: Iowa 194
## 43: New Mexico 192
## 44: Kansas 190
## 45: South Dakota 186
## 46: North Carolina 177
## 47: Kentucky 168
## 48: Texas 168
## 49: Nebraska 141
## 50: Minnesota 131
## 51: West Virginia 121
## 52: Puerto Rico 98
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesPerMillion
New confirmed cases
Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state casesNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 1,315
## 2: Louisiana 1,102
## 3: New Jersey 1,008
## 4: Massachusetts 466
## 5: Michigan 428
## 6: Connecticut 351
## 7: Idaho 266
## 8: Rhode Island 235
## 9: Georgia 227
## 10: District of Columbia 223
## 11: Pennsylvania 223
## 12: Illinois 207
## 13: Colorado 191
## 14: Indiana 185
## 15: Washington 184
## 16: Tennessee 168
## 17: Florida 153
## 18: Maryland 151
## 19: Nevada 134
## 20: Delaware 132
## 21: Vermont 131
## 22: Missouri 127
## 23: South Carolina 122
## 24: New Hampshire 121
## 25: Mississippi 110
## 26: Oklahoma 100
## 27: Wyoming 100
## 28: California 90
## 29: Utah 83
## 30: Ohio 82
## 31: Virginia 80
## 32: Wisconsin 79
## 33: Maine 75
## 34: South Dakota 72
## 35: Alabama 65
## 36: North Dakota 65
## 37: Texas 63
## 38: Kansas 62
## 39: Kentucky 61
## 40: Iowa 60
## 41: Arizona 59
## 42: Montana 59
## 43: New Mexico 58
## 44: Arkansas 57
## 45: Hawaii 55
## 46: North Carolina 52
## 47: Oregon 52
## 48: Nebraska 45
## 49: Puerto Rico 44
## 50: West Virginia 40
## 51: Alaska 36
## 52: Minnesota 29
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesNewPerMillion
Total deaths
Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
## state deathsPerMillion
## 1: New York 136
## 2: Louisiana 66
## 3: New Jersey 60
## 4: Michigan 41
## 5: Washington 39
## 6: Connecticut 31
## 7: Vermont 27
## 8: Massachusetts 22
## 9: District of Columbia 17
## 10: Colorado 16
## 11: Georgia 16
## 12: Illinois 13
## 13: Delaware 12
## 14: Nevada 12
## 15: Indiana 11
## 16: Rhode Island 11
## 17: Mississippi 8
## 18: Oklahoma 8
## 19: Kentucky 7
## 20: Pennsylvania 7
## 21: Alabama 6
## 22: California 6
## 23: Florida 6
## 24: Ohio 6
## 25: South Carolina 6
## 26: Wisconsin 6
## 27: Idaho 5
## 28: Maine 5
## 29: Maryland 5
## 30: Montana 5
## 31: Arizona 4
## 32: Kansas 4
## 33: Oregon 4
## 34: Tennessee 4
## 35: Virginia 4
## 36: Arkansas 3
## 37: Iowa 3
## 38: Minnesota 3
## 39: Missouri 3
## 40: Nebraska 3
## 41: New Hampshire 3
## 42: New Mexico 3
## 43: North Dakota 3
## 44: Puerto Rico 3
## 45: Alaska 2
## 46: South Dakota 2
## 47: Texas 2
## 48: Utah 2
## 49: Hawaii 1
## 50: North Carolina 1
## 51: West Virginia 1
## 52: Wyoming 0
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsPerMillion
New deaths
Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state deathsNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 73
## 2: New Jersey 38
## 3: Louisiana 26
## 4: Michigan 22
## 5: Connecticut 21
## 6: Massachusetts 13
## 7: Washington 10
## 8: Vermont 8
## 9: Colorado 7
## 10: Rhode Island 7
## 11: Georgia 6
## 12: Illinois 6
## 13: Indiana 6
## 14: Nevada 6
## 15: Delaware 5
## 16: Kentucky 5
## 17: Alabama 4
## 18: District of Columbia 4
## 19: Oklahoma 4
## 20: Florida 3
## 21: Maryland 3
## 22: Mississippi 3
## 23: Ohio 3
## 24: Pennsylvania 3
## 25: Arizona 2
## 26: California 2
## 27: Maine 2
## 28: South Carolina 2
## 29: Tennessee 2
## 30: Wisconsin 2
## 31: Arkansas 1
## 32: Hawaii 1
## 33: Idaho 1
## 34: Iowa 1
## 35: Kansas 1
## 36: Minnesota 1
## 37: Missouri 1
## 38: Montana 1
## 39: Nebraska 1
## 40: New Hampshire 1
## 41: New Mexico 1
## 42: North Carolina 1
## 43: Oregon 1
## 44: Puerto Rico 1
## 45: South Dakota 1
## 46: Texas 1
## 47: Virginia 1
## 48: Alaska 0
## 49: North Dakota 0
## 50: Utah 0
## 51: West Virginia 0
## 52: Wyoming 0
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsNewPerMillion
Compare new cases based on stay-at-home orders
- The section is a work in progress – I’ll probably change and add plots over the coming days.
- I’m trying to see what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
- The current plot shows the rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger for the group with orders over time, as more states implement those orders).
- So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
- Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens a bit, but we’ll see. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
- The next plot I want to add will show rate of spread based on how long an order has been in effect, but still thinking about how to do this. Mostly, I’m trying to decide what the right baseline is to compare against.
